Monday, May 28, 2012

Reduction of risk for lethal prostate cancer in Sweden ? THE "NEW ...

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A paper to be presented at the upcoming?annual meeting of the American Society for Clinical Oncology (ASCO) suggests that, at least in Sweden, the combination of an increase in PSA testing, early diagnosis, and treatment with curative intent has decreased the risk for and incidence of lethal prostate cancer.

Stattin et al. used data from the nationwide Swedish health and mortality registries to assess the incidence of lethal prostate cancer in

  • The eight Swedish counties that had the largest increase in incidence of?prostate cancer diagnosis?between 1995?and 2002 (high incidence counties)
  • The six Swedish counties?that had?the smallest increase in?incidence of prostate cancer during the same time period?(low incidence counties).

Among men aged between 50 and 74 years of age?between 2000?and 2009 in these two groups of counties, they then calculated the?relative likelihoods (rate ratios) of

  • Men?with metastatic?prostate cancer at diagnosis (based on a positive bone scan or a PSA level > 100 ng/ml)
  • Prostate cancer-specific deaths, and
  • Death among men diagnosed with prostate cancer, regardless of cause ( the excess mortality).

Here are the results of their analysis:

  • The total risk for a?diagnosis of prostate cancer in the eight high incidence counties was 4,528,134 person-years.
  • The total risk for a diagnosis of prostate cancer in the six low incidence counties was 2,471,373 person-years.
  • In the high incidence counties, there were
    • 33,780 incident?prostate cancer?diagnoses
    • 1,577?prostate cancer-specific?deaths
  • In the low incidence counties, there were
    • 16,377 incident prostate cancer diagnoses
    • 985?prostate cancer-specific?deaths
  • In the high incidence vs. the low incidence counties,
    • The rate ratio (RR) of metastatic?prostate cancer?was 0.85.
    • The RR of prostate cancer-specific mortality was 0.87.
    • The RR of excess mortality in men with?prostate cancer?was 0.75.

Stattin et al. conclude that, on a population level,?there?has been?a?significant decrease in the?incidence of lethal?prostate cancer?in areas of Sweden with a rapid and?widespread increase in?the diagnosis of incident prostate cancer and that this decrease in incidence of lethal prostate cacner is a direct consequence of increased rates of PSA testing, early diagnosis, and treatment with curative intent.

It is important to note, in seeking to understand the implications of this study, that the researchers are not assigning responsibility for the outcome solely to PSA testing. On the other hand, early diagnosis and consequent treatment with curative intent would arguably not have been possible?in the absence of?PSA testing.

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